Rent model

Rent model

Current (model p5v4-2026.07)

Per-unit market rent is built from HUD voucher ceilings, not hope:

1. Anchor: HUD FY2026 Small Area FMR (2BR) for the ZIP.
2. Bedroom ladder: map the unit’s bedroom count to HUD-typical ratios vs 2BR — 0BR 0.74, 1BR 0.86, 2BR 1.00, 3BR 1.30, 4BR 1.49. Per-unit beds = total beds ÷ units (default: 2BR).
3. Blend: where Zillow ZORI exists for the ZIP, blend 55% SAFMR-ladder / 45% ZORI-ladder — SAFMR lags hot markets. Where SAFMR is missing, fall back to ZORI × ratio (last resort: a $1,500 base).
4. Bounds: floor 0.7× and cap 1.6× the SAFMR-implied figure. No fantasy rents in either direction.

Renovated multiplier: 1.5×, uncalibrated. This is a policy assumption bounded by the SAFMR ceiling, not a measured prediction for the property. The old 1.85× multiplier was retired in p0-2026.06. The current scorecard marks rent validation awaiting_mls_rentals, so verify rent with licensed local rental comps before relying on DSCR or returns. Income is a cross-check only and never sets ARV.

Section 8 overlay

SAFMR (2BR voucher ceiling) minus ZIP market-rent estimate is shown as a screening gap. Positive means the published ceiling is above the estimate; it does not mean a housing authority will approve that rent or guarantee payment. Inspection, rent reasonableness, local payment standards and tenant circumstances still apply.

Limitations

ZIP-blended throughout — ZORI covers ~288 IL ZIPs, and a hot block inherits its ZIP’s median. No condition awareness: the 1.5× applies uniformly even though the true renovated premium varies by submarket. No per-building observation: this is a model of the ZIP, applied to your address.

Planned (P2)

A trained rent model on licensed realized-rental data, HUD FMR/SAFMR, local payment standards, and vintage-tagged public priors over unit mix, size, age/type, condition proxies, and submarket. The renovation premium will be learned from permitted paired observations, replacing the 1.5× constant. Until usage rights and realized-rent validation exist, no scraped-rent accuracy claim ships.